Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 0.739293 0.850787 0.969895 1.106212 1.257506 1.419869 1.606874
2025-02-23 0.540642 0.682640 0.845371 1.044159 1.278857 1.545523 1.869721
2025-03-02 0.388293 0.539335 0.725137 0.967021 1.269819 1.632420 2.095162
2025-03-09 0.296751 0.453347 0.659805 0.945300 1.322485 1.795966 2.426466
2025-03-16 0.223070 0.376644 0.594094 0.913452 1.358041 1.941619 2.750009
2025-03-23 0.180614 0.335520 0.569985 0.933667 1.463919 2.187329 3.223532
2025-03-30 0.133238 0.276123 0.509172 0.892770 1.480144 2.314215 3.550402
2025-04-06 0.101516 0.234711 0.468400 0.875296 1.527163 2.486931 3.953233
2025-04-13 0.075835 0.197033 0.426430 0.849153 1.557187 2.636705 4.334197
2025-04-20 0.060596 0.175474 0.408380 0.859530 1.644666 2.877603 4.863494
2025-04-27 0.047033 0.153085 0.384197 0.855289 1.707133 3.084259 5.354812
2025-05-04 0.037460 0.136736 0.368529 0.863940 1.791545 3.330731 5.921560
2025-05-11 0.028958 0.120310 0.350370 0.867611 1.872091 3.584229 6.527675
2025-05-18 0.020788 0.100736 0.320386 0.842919 1.898943 3.751691 7.009138
2025-05-25 0.013893 0.080808 0.283823 0.797819 1.882137 3.843605 7.374068
2025-06-01 0.010239 0.070086 0.267743 0.794682 1.945653 4.079126 7.990925
2025-06-08 0.007179 0.059204 0.247791 0.778935 1.981934 4.268489 8.540686
2025-06-15 0.005734 0.054824 0.245874 0.806361 2.109843 4.632562 9.409838
2025-06-22 0.003746 0.044992 0.223185 0.777361 2.114910 4.769236 9.889529
2025-06-29 0.002564 0.038419 0.208914 0.767419 2.159798 4.983168 10.516104
2025-07-06 0.001652 0.032033 0.192545 0.748276 2.181453 5.152962 11.070909
2025-07-13 0.001206 0.028910 0.187740 0.761125 2.277463 5.473179 11.912874
2025-07-20 0.000813 0.025207 0.178823 0.759998 2.340159 5.730374 12.649691